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Monday, April 20, 2009

UBS Asian Economic Perspectives - ASEAN housing markets - opportunity or threat?


- Opportunity and threat

Will Southeast Asian housing markets provide a bulwark for the economy
in coming quarters or accentuate the crisis? This question matters.
Housing is a key part of household balance sheets in Southeast Asia,
with owner occupancy rates running from 71% in the Philippines to 90% in
Singapore and rural Indonesia. Changes in housing prices and valuations
will impact consumer spending decisions, household collateral for credit
and construction activity.

- A proprietary scorecard approach

We adopt a proprietary scorecard approach to gauging support for
Southeast Asian housing market valuations. Combining metrics for 1)
housing supply and demand; 2) the availability of credit; and 3)
discount rates, along with an assessment of government policy, we assess
both the cyclical and structural changes facing Southeast Asia's housing

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