National Tracking Poll
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Presidential Preferences
Across Three Economic Sectors
(Services, Industrial, and Agriculture)
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Republic of the Philippines
Presidential Ascendancy Analysis Phase IV
Period Ending March 5, 2010
National Sample Spread: 2,550 Respondents/2,550 Questionnaires
Services: 1.382 (54.2%); Industrial 787 (30.9%); Agriculture: 380 (14.9%)
Geographical Location: Luzon (57%); Mindanao (25%); Visayas (18%)
Economic Sectors: Services (54.2%); Industrial (30.9%); Agriculture (14.9%)
This National/Regional Tracking Poll on the leading contenders to the presidency in the Philippines is meant to 1) examine the top issues affecting the nation's 51 million voters and 2) show who are leading the campaign in the run up to the May 10, 2010 elections.
No part herein shall be construed as an endorsement for any candidate or political party. The annotations are based on field data, as gathered via questionnaire administered person-to-person (P2P) or home-to-home (H2H) by duly qualified enumerators of the Campaigns & Image Group.
All information and analysis herein are proprietary property of the Campaigns & Image Group and its research arm Tools & Strategy Philippines.
Overview
A net importer of goods, the Philippines as newly industrialized country continues to transform its economy from one based on agriculture to one based more on services and manufacturing.
Of the country's total labor force of around 38.1 million, the agricultural sector employs nearly 32% but contributes to only about 13.8% of GDP. The industrial sector employs around 13.7% of the workforce and accounts for 30% of GDP.
The 46.5% of workers involved in the services sector are responsible for 56.2% of GDP. Its service industries (such as tourism and business process outsourcing) have been identified as areas with some of the best opportunities for growth.
This survey zeroes in on presidential preference among voters in the services, industrial, and agriculture sectors of the economy. In proportion to their respective contribution to the Philippine economy and to the value of goods and services produced nationwide, services gets 54.2%; industrial, 30.9%, and agriculture, 14.9%.
To present a clear picture, Campaigns & Image used a large sample spread of 5,100 during its December 2009 and January 2010 surveys to establish a comprehensive benchmark. Like a picture that has thousands of digital pixels, our findings reflect a truly rational and reliable measurement of the preferences our electors have for presidential, senatorial, and local government positions at stake in the May balloting.
In keeping with the above-given information, CIG designed subsequent tracking polls using 2,550 samples (2,550 questionnaires) for each survey period.
By drawing parallel assumptions from hundreds of pixels that render a photograph clear and detailed for the human eye, CIG further drew a direct proportion of samples for each geographical location to get a better view of the results. "Services" is allotted 1,382 questionnaires or respondents; "industrial," 787, and "agriculture," 380.
By adopting a scientific approach in the distribution of questionnaires according to the appropriate percentile weight each location deserves, Campaigns & Image Group is able to examine the same samples and findings from different vantage points: age brackets, economic sectors, and geographical locations.
Homestretch campaigning has began. It is boiling up to a tight contest for mind-shares and hearts. The discussion over the key issues—poverty that besets the nation; corruption that wastes government resources and national development, especially about jobs, industrial growth and social services—will expectedly intensify in households and among families. The presidency (who to vote for) will be an inescapable topic; it is a four-corner race—with three front-runners and a dark horse.
The Front-runners
BENIGNO AQUINO III has built a formidable ascendancy on an anti-corruption program of government, which is meant to refresh the public mind about the wrongdoings and shortcomings of President GLORIA MACAPAGAL ARROYO. He has forcefully explained that the continuity that's being sought by her surrogate in former defense secretary GILBERT TEODORO JR will do the Philippines no good.
MANUEL VILLAR JR espouses poverty eradication as the central theme of his campaign, presenting himself as a rags-to-riches story that can be duplicated in any one who works hard among the country's 51 million voters. He is gaining higher public trust ratings on a poverty elimination initiative that plans to implement within a year from taking his oath of office.
TEODORO represents the hybrid conservative-progressive argument highlighting the gains the country has had maintained as far as the economy is concerned.
Former president JOSEPH ESTRADA emphasizes domestic issues, especially peace and order, as the cornerstone of balanced economic growth and pre-requisite to massive inflows of foreign investment and capital.
RICHARD GORDON heads the Philippine National Red Cross and was one of the country's highly regarded city mayors.
VILLAR, AQUINO and GORDON are incumbent senators in the upper house of Philippine Congress.
EDUARDO VILLANUEVA is a popular TV evangelist and founder of the minority, non-denominational, 3-million-member Jesus is Lord Church is this largely Roman Catholic nation.
Presidential Preferences across Three
Economic Sectors in the Philippines
In the tabulation below you will find the tabulation of responses to the questions (1) "Who among the 10 presidential candidates do you think is capable of governing1 the Philippines," and (2) "For whom you will be voting."
The succession of these two questions is meant to confirm and validate the respondent's presidential preferences. An outright first-choice-of-name answer is deemed negated or countermanded if the respondent does not yes on the second.
The questionnaire design is intended to affirm the basis of individual and collective judgment straight from the respondent's decision.
First-mention between presidential candidates has become a tight contest between VILLAR and AQUINO, as shown in Pulse Asia and Social Weather Station survey results based solely on Metro Manila/NCR cross-section sampling.
But in three previous surveys tapping volunteers from the PPCRV and Philippine NGO Coalition, and with a spread of 5,100 samples nationwide, VILLAR had apparently established a lead and AQUINO was second. TEODORO appeared to have dislodged ESTRADA from third place.
But, in the run up to the start of the campaign for local elective positions began, TEODORO figured prominently in national and regional tracking polls in the country's suburban centers, especially where high-enrolment colleges and universities are located.
Section 1: Services Sector
Hereunder is the updated change tracker on the Services Sector:
| Base: Total Registered Voters 100% First-Choice in Nine (9) Names Presidential Preference (Services Sector): 27.642 Million Nationwide |
| Candidate | Feb 10–17 | Feb 21–28 | Mar 7–10 | Mar 16–20 | Apr 1 –5 | Change To date | G A R |
| AQUINO | 7% | 8% | 10% | 12% | 14% | + 2 | |
| ESTRADA | 4% | 5% | 7% | 7% | 5% | – 2 | |
| GORDON | 1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 3% | – | |
| TEODORO | 5% | 7% | 11% | 8% | 17% | + 9 | |
| VILLANUEVA | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | – | |
| VILLAR | 10% | 12% | 15% | 22% | 29% | + 7 | |
| OTHERS | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | – | |
| UNDECIDED | 69% | 64% | 53% | 46% | 30% | – 16 | |
| | | | | | | | |
| SAMPLE DEPTH | 2,764 | 2,764 | 1,382 | 1,382 | | | |
Sample base representing national cross-section: 2,550
Services (54.2%) = 1,382 respondents
Subsequent sampling cut by 50% in favor of easy tracking management
DESCRIPTION
Self-employed men and women in the country's "underground" economy (that is least taxed, if not "untaxed") and blue-collar workers belong to this sector, which is also called the "Class CD."
The Services Sector is comprised of 27.642 million voters, of which 14 million are women and 13.642 million are men.
ANALYSIS
(1) VILLAR
Survey leader VILLAR gained only 7% for his 29% in presidential preference rating (PPR). His consistent raise in acceptability stemmed from massive TV and radio advertising that he has maintained as early as December 2009 and more consistently and forcefully into January through March. Positive improvement technically followed –16% shifts of preference among undecided voters.
(2) TEODORO
Validating the assertion that the administration party has organizational advantage, second placer TEODORO posted 17% in PPR, with 9% gains from the 8%. This positive development occurred just 10 days after the start of the campaign period for local elective officials supporting him.
As campaign funds came in trickles, his campaign reduced TV advertising exposure in February and relied on volunteers to bring his messages across young voters. His rating fell 3% points (See Table) around the second week of March when all the other front-runners cranked up their advertising in the country's major radio and TV networks.
(3) AQUINO
Third placer AQUINO put in 2% points more, on a gradual climb that was largely opposite to the continuous slip of his PPR in other voter segments.
(4) ESTRADA
At fourth place with 5% in PPR, ESTRADA leveled off in two weeks and then lost 2% points as AQUINO and the administration party increased their effort in the last weeks of March.
The services sector by far remains the hotly contested segment of the nation's 51 million registered voters, more than one-half of whom looked at poverty and corruption important to their lives.
Each percentage point that's either gained (+) or lost (–) corresponds to 2 million voters in nationwide projection.
Hereunder is the breakdown of the Services Sector into four sub-segments. You will find how the performance of each candidates from one section to another:
| Base: Total Registered Voters 100% First-Choice in Nine (9) Names Presidential Preference (Services Sector): 27.642 Million Nationwide |
| | AQU | EST | GOR | TEO | VILLAN | VILLAR | OTHERS | UNDEC |
| Urban | 7% | 1% | 2% | 7% | 0.6% | 9% | 0.7% | 73% |
| Suburban | 3% | 2% | 1% | 4% | 0.2% | 8% | 0.3% | 82% |
| Rural | 2% | 2% | – | 2% | 0.2% | 4% | – | 90% |
| Overseas | 2% | – | – | 4% | – | 8% | – | 86% |
| | | | | | | | | |
| Total | 14% | 5% | 3% | 17% | 1% | 29% | 1% | – |
National Sample Spread: 2,550 Questionnaires/2,550 Respondents
Services: 54.2%; Industrial: 30.9%; Agriculture: 14.9%
Urban: 52%; Suburban: 31%; Rural: 12%; Overseas: 5%
ANALYSIS
The Services Sector is composed of 27.642 million voters—about 51% of them women and 49% men who are open and susceptible to populist agenda as espoused by VILLAR, AQUINO, and ESTRADA.
Voter strength in each sub-sectors are broken down as follows:
=Urban: 14.37 million
=Suburban: 8.56 million
=Rural: 3.31 million
=Overseas: 1.40 million
(1) VILLAR: Maintains formidable overall presence with a presidential preference rating (PPR) of 29% for first place. His ascendancy is evenly distributed throughout: 9% urban; 8% suburban; 4% rural, and 8% overseas.
(2) TEODORO: Second place with 17% in PPR; maintaining a good following with 7% in urban, 4% suburban, 2% rural, and 4% overseas sub-sectors
(3) AQUINO: Third in ranking with 14% in PPR; keeps 7% urban, 3% suburban, 2% rural, and 2% overseas.
Large voter blocs are found among workers in tourism enterprises and business process outsosurcing companies.
Survey shows there are many voters that remained undecided and could still be reached out as election-day nears.
Dynamic and active courses of actions are needed for cost-effective vote conversions.
Section 2: Industrial Sector
"Command votes" are being sought about in companies were supervisors and managers exert either direct or indirect influence on the choice of candidates.
The industrial sector in the Philippines remains concentrated in companies involved in food processing, and the manufacture of textiles and garments, and electronics and automobile parts.
Most factories are located in the urban areas around metropolitan Manila.
The Cebu metropolis has become an attraction for foreign and local investors in years. To some extent it has emerged as the new business outsourcing "Mecca" in central Philippines after Manila.
Other vote-rich sections thrived around mining, which also has great potential in the Philippines, and which possesses significant reserves of chromite, nickel, and copper.
Recent natural gas finds off the islands of Palawan add to the country's substantial reserves for geothermal, hydro, and coal and oil exploration energy.
B. Industrial Sector
| Base: Total Registered Voters 100% First-Choice Presidential Preference (Industrial Sector): 15.76 Million Nationwide |
| Candidate | Feb 10–17 | Feb 21–28 | Mar 7–10 | Mar 16–20 | Apr 1–5 | | Change To date |
| AQUINO | 32% | 20% | 20% | 23% | 24% | | + 1 |
| ESTRADA | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | | – |
| GORDON | 1% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 2% | | – 1 |
| TEODORO | 10% | 18% | 24% | 20% | 28% | | + 8 |
| VILLANUEVA | 2% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 2% | | – 1 |
| VILLAR | 21% | 24% | 29% | 30% | 35% | | + 5 |
| OTHERS | 2% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 2% | | – |
| UNDECIDED | 31% | 29% | 15% | 17% | 5% | | – 12 |
Sample base representing national cross-section: 2,550
Industrial (30.9%) = 787 respondents
Subsequent sampling cut by 50% in favor of easy tracking management
ANALYSIS
Vote-rich Industrial Sector hosts a huge lode of 15.76 men and women across a age brackets who are eligible to vote.
VILLAR retained the top rank but managed to gain 5% points.
By far the biggest gainer at 8%, TEODORO overtook AQUINO to take second place with a PPR of 28%.
AQUINO landed on third place with 24% in PPR, gaining 1% after recovering from a long slide in ratings from as high as 37% in December to as low as 20% in the middle of March.
The gains that TEODORO and VILLAR have had sprang from shifts in preferences among undecided voters (–12%) and from Gordon and Villanueva.
Hereunder is the break down on the Industrial Sector:
| Base: Total Registered Voters 100% First-Choice in Nine (9) Names Presidential Preference (Industrial Sector): 15.76 Million Nationwide |
| | AQU | EST | GOR | TEO | VILLAN | VILLAR | OTHERS | UNDEC |
| Urban | 11% | – | 1% | 11% | 1% | 14% | 1% | 61% |
| Suburban | 9% | 0.85% | 1% | 10% | 1% | 12% | 1% | 66% |
| Rural | 3% | 0.15% | – | 3% | – | 3% | – | 91% |
| Overseas | 1% | – | – | 4% | – | 6% | – | 89% |
| | | | | | | | | |
| Total | 24% | 1% | 2% | 28% | 2% | 35% | 2% | – |
National Sample Spread: 2,550 Questionnaires/2,550 Respondents
Services: 54.2%; Industrial: 30.9%; Agriculture: 14.9%
Urban: 57%; Suburban: 35%; Rural: 5%; Overseas: 3%
ANALYSIS
Up to 15.76 million voters come from the industrial sector. They are concentrated mainly in the processing and assembly operations of various consumer products.
VILLAR, with 22 percentage points, and TEODORO (18%) have formidable following among voters in this sector.
Large voting blocs are found in factories that manufacture food and beverages, rubber products, tobacco, textiles, clothing and footwear, pharmaceuticals, paints, plywood and veneer, paper and paper products, and electronics.
Manufacturers of heavier industrial products such as cement, chemicals, fertilizers, iron and steel, glass, and refined petroleum products also packed a large vote potential.
Although small- and medium-sized firms account for 80% of manufacturing employment, they accounted for only 25 percent of the value-added in manufacturing.
Most industrial output was concentrated in a few, large establishments. For example, a recent six-month Philippine Senate inquiry found out that eight of the country's 17 cement manufacturers were under control of a single firm—in effect, a large voting bloc that can be influenced for a single candidate or political party.
The Philippine rural electrification program remains vote-rich, if not a fertile ground for campaigns. It has a wide franchise area of some 120 electrical cooperatives, reaching around 5 million households nationwide.
Section 3: Agriculture Sector
| Base: Total Registered Voters 100% First-Choice in Nine (9) Names Presidential Preference (Agriculture Sector): 7.6 Million Nationwide |
| Candidate | Feb 10–17 | Feb 21–28 | Mar 7–10 | Mar 16–20 | Apr 1–5 | Change To date |
| AQUINO | 2% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 5% | – |
| ESTRADA | 1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 7% | + 4 |
| GORDON | 0.57 | 1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | + 1 |
| TEODORO | 1% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 18% | + 15 |
| VILLANUEVA | 0.46 | 0.71 | 1% | 1% | 1% | – |
| VILLAR | 2% | 3% | 5% | 8% | 17% | + 9 |
| OTHERS | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | – |
| UNDECIDED | 92% | 88% | 84% | 77% | 48% | – 29 |
Sample base representing national cross-section: 2,550
Agriculture (14.9%) = 380 respondents
Subsequent sampling cut by 50% in favor of easy tracking management
ANALYSIS
Around 7.59 million voters come from the agriculture sector. They are located in major landholdings and farms that produce rice, sugar, coconut products, corn, bananas, pineapple products, aquaculture, mangoes pork, and eggs.
TEODORO is ranked first in this sector, where he has 18% in PPR. He's 1% ahead of VILLAR and 13% bigger than AQUINO'S.
| Base: Total Registered Voters 100% First-Choice in Nine (9) Names Presidential Preference (Agriculture Sector): 7.6 Million Nationwide |
| | AQU | EST | GOR | TEO | VILLAN | VILLAR | OTHERS | UNDEC |
| Urban | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Suburban | 4% | 1% | 3% | 11% | 1% | 12% | 1% | 67% |
| Rural | 1% | 6% | – | 7% | – | 5% | – | 81% |
| Overseas | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| | | | | | | | | |
| Total | 5% | 7% | 3% | 18% | 1% | 17% | 1% | – |
National Sample Spread: 2,550 Questionnaires/2,550 Respondents
Services: 54.2%; Industrial: 30.9%; Agriculture: 14.9%
Urban: 2%; Suburban: 22%; Rural: 76%;
The differences between the results of this survey and that of Social Weather Stations and Pulse Asia stemmed from statistical samples that are obtained in the National Capital Region and used as a random base for nationwide analysis.
This national tracking poll has become the most reliable tool outsiders (foreign observers) use in understanding the sentiments, thoughts, and aspirations of the Filipino people as regards their choices of national and local officials. This tells exactly where a candidate posts gains or losses and describes the reason(s) for each rise or fall in preference ratings.
From the governance capability ratings (GCR) and general acceptability ratings (GAR) of the candidates our subscribers will see who are likely to comprise the country's executive and legislative leadership after Mrs. Arroyo steps down in June 2010.
Hereunder are the rest of our findings:
=Voters hold issues around poverty alleviation, graft and corruption in government, balanced national growth, and domestic peace important to their lives. They indeed serve as decision motivation factors in voters' presidential preference
=Voters fed up with promises are looking for candidates that could embody their aspirations and deliver reforms. No negative comments were raised against the pre-determined parameters on first-choice presidential preference
=Impact of TV and radio remains high; in fact, they're highly effective but costly perception-shaping tools
=Other non-conventional campaign methods (including those that TEODORO used in colleges and universities) are effective but slow in getting results
1) Communication strategy, messaging, and choice of media (TV and radio) win heart and minds. This observation means that:
=Voter response is tied to issues they hold important in their lives
=Audiences relate themselves to the life and experience of candidates
=Candidate who presents a better platform gets higher preference
=The more ads aired, the deeper messages sink in
2) Organization (logistics) wins campaigns:
=Preferences change over time in the run up to balloting
=Creating and sustaining perceptions of being "winnable" are inadequate
=Vote conversion drivers hold the key to victory
By far perceived to be popular and well-prepared presidential candidates in the nine-person field, the most likely winner could be anyone in VILLAR, AQUINO and TEODORO.
Analysis & Annotation By
The Campaigns & Image Group (Philippines)
4/5/2010
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