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Sunday, November 15, 2009

Global Source Quarterly - The Sun Also Rises

The Sun Also Rises
GlobalSource Partners
Oct 27, 2009


The Philippine scenario does not look as bleak as one would expect after a
great flood. Growth would likely continue this year thanks to resilient
remittances and the support provided by rebuilding efforts.

A robust current account is able to mask increased fiscal worries by
allowing a healthy amount of foreign currency borrowing to occur in what
appears to be another case of overseas Filipinos saving the day. This in a
nutshell keeps financial markets in still quite good shape.

Prospects look particularly promising for 2010 when the country will be led
by a new president brought peacefully to power while the world economy
gains strength. Such would usher in continued remittances, export recovery,
and a honeymoon period with a new leader that could only improve the
environment for investments.

The two leading candidates in the May 2010 elections based on the latest
popularity surveys can be expected to manage the economy competently. Both
are acceptable to the business sector and financial markets and will likely
be more blessed than the previous leader with a popular mandate, which
should fuel a surge of optimism in the country.


* Rain or shine?

* Reconstruction support

* Fine weather in financial markets

* Fingers in the dike as deficit widens

* Tragedy's foreign currency windfall

* The Aquino afterglow

* Forecast tables

* Charts pages

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